Evaluation of common predictors for selection of postdoctoral dental students

Certain predictors are traditionally presumed to be reliable measures for selection of candidates for general dentistry training programs. The purpose of this study was to assess the relative value of academic standing, letters of recommendation, and personal interview impressions by comparing them with performance during training. Predictor data were collected from the application files of all postdoctoral trainees in the advanced general dentistry training program at the Eastern Dental Center of the past ten years (N = 154). However, only 102 postdoctoral students had information available for all three predictor criteria. Performance was rated subjectively on completion of training by two faculty members on a six-point rating scale. The highest correlations between predictors and performance were to academic achievement (r = 0.347). Weaker, though statistically significant, correlations were found for the personal interview (r = 0.206) and letters of recommendation (r = 0.192). Although these predictor criteria will continue to be used in the selection of candidates, administrators and selection committees must be aware of the limitations of such criteria in predicting performance.